Articles
Business intelligence and analysis on Ecuador
Cacao Prices Retreat to $4,500/Ton but Ecuador Export Volumes Set to Surpass 600,000 Tons
Global cacao prices have fallen to approximately $4,500 per ton, down sharply from the December 2024 peak of $12,483. Despite the correction, Ecuador's export volumes are projected to exceed 600,000 tons in 2026, with the sector expected to generate over $1 billion in additional revenue.
Ecuador Returns to International Bond Markets With Record $4B Sale, Moody's Upgrades Two Notches
Ecuador sold $4 billion in new sovereign bonds on January 26 -- its first international issuance since 2019 -- drawing $18 billion in demand from over 340 investors. Moody's responded with a two-notch upgrade to Caa1, while a simultaneous $3 billion buyback will save $698 million in 2026 debt service.
Ecuador Halts All Mining in Napo Province, Restricts Operations in El Oro and Loja Over Toxic Contamination
Ecuador's Ministry of Environment suspended all mining activity in Napo province and restricted ore processing in El Oro and Loja effective February 2, citing dangerous concentrations of heavy metals and cyanide in the Calera, Amarillo, and Napo rivers. Officials warn environmental restoration will take "many years."
CONAIE Mobilises Against Noboa's Urgent Mining Reform Bill, Warns of 'Devastating' Environmental Rollback
Ecuador's largest indigenous federation CONAIE raised a formal alarm on February 4 against President Noboa's mining reform bill, submitted January 28 as an "urgent economic matter" with a 30-day legislative deadline. The government aims to boost mining exports from $3.6B to $6.8B by 2036, but CONAIE warns the bill guts environmental safeguards for paramos, forests, and water sources.
US Tariff Cut on Indian Shrimp From 50% to 18% Threatens Ecuador's Hard-Won Market Dominance
The United States' decision to cut tariffs on Indian shrimp imports from 50% to 18% poses a direct threat to Ecuador's position as the top US shrimp supplier -- a status achieved only recently after Ecuador's shrimp exports totalled $6.99 billion in 2024. CNA president Jose Antonio Camposano is pressing the government to negotiate better trade terms.
Colombia's Indefinite Electricity Suspension Costs Ecuador an Estimated $2M Per Day in Replacement Energy
Colombia indefinitely suspended electricity exports to Ecuador effective February 1, a move Bogota characterises as a "preventive measure" to protect its own energy sovereignty. Ecuador estimates the suspension forces it to source approximately $2 million per day in higher-cost replacement energy from thermal generation and spot market purchases.
Ecuador Imposes 900% Tariff Hike on SOTE Pipeline Transport of Colombian Crude
Ecuador raised the tariff for transporting Colombian crude through the state-owned SOTE pipeline from $3 to $30 per barrel -- a 900% increase affecting approximately 12,000 barrels per day of Ecopetrol production. Energy Minister Ines Manzano announced the measure as direct retaliation for Colombia's suspension of electricity exports.
Ecuador-Colombia Trade War Paralyses Rumichaca Border as Reciprocal 30% Tariffs Devastate $3B+ Annual Commerce
Reciprocal 30% tariffs between Ecuador and Colombia, effective February 1, have triggered a near-total collapse in cross-border trade at the Rumichaca crossing. More than 1,000 truckers staged a "March for Border Dignity" on February 4, as bilateral commerce worth over $3 billion annually grinds to a halt. High-level officials are scheduled to meet in Quito on February 6.
Banco Pichincha's Digital Unit Crosses 3 Million Users as Mobile Lending Triples
Banco Pichincha's digital banking platform has surpassed 3 million active users, with mobile-originated lending tripling to $420 million in 2025 as Ecuador's largest financial institution accelerates its technology transformation.
Ecuador Banana Sector Faces Margin Squeeze as AEBE Enters Wage Negotiations
Ecuador's banana industry, the world's largest by export volume, faces mounting pressure from labour cost increases as the Asociacion de Exportadores de Banano del Ecuador enters contentious wage negotiations amid a proposed 8% minimum hike for agricultural workers.
Guayaquil's Waterfront Sees $650mn in New Commercial Projects as Puerto Santa Ana Expands
Guayaquil's riverfront commercial district is experiencing a construction boom, with $650 million in new mixed-use projects breaking ground along the expanded Puerto Santa Ana corridor as domestic and Colombian developers bet on the city's post-pandemic recovery.
Ecuador Sovereign Bonds Rally to Post-Restructuring Highs on Fiscal Discipline Signals
Ecuador's restructured sovereign bonds have rallied sharply in early 2026, with the benchmark 2035 notes trading at 78.5 cents on the dollar -- their highest level since the 2020 debt overhaul -- as investors reward fiscal consolidation efforts.