Articles
Business intelligence and analysis on Ecuador
Cenace: Electrical System Operating Normally — Mazar at 62.4%, Molino at 50.2%, Daule Peripa at 63%
Cenace confirmed on April 27 that Ecuador's electrical system is operating normally, with the three critical hydroelectric reservoirs — Mazar (62.4%), Molino (50.2%), and Daule Peripa (63%) — at acceptable generation levels. Moderate rainfall supported inflows. The structural 900–1,000 MW deficit remains unresolved.
Ecuador's Power Generation Gap Reaches 900–1,000 MW as Mazar Reservoir Drops 6 Meters in 25 Days
Ecuador faces a structural energy deficit of 900–1,000 MW with no near-term resolution. The Mazar hydroelectric reservoir has fallen from 2,139 to 2,132.89 meters above sea level since April 1, accelerating since April 19. Cenace warns of cascading failure risk. Oil production hit a 16-year low of 349,167 bbl/d in 2025.
Petroecuador Contracts First-Ever Oil Price Hedge — Covers 30M+ Barrels Through December 2026
Petroecuador executed the first petroleum price hedge in its history, covering more than 30 million barrels — roughly 40-50% of volumes to be commercialized through December 2026 — against downside risk below the budget's $53.50/bbl assumption. A January 2026 decree legalized insurance premium as legitimate risk-management expense; BCE was authorized in March to act as intermediary.
Celec Launches Six Thermal Generation Rental Contracts — 920 MW Targeted, Diesel Demand to Rise Sharply
Corporación Eléctrica del Ecuador (Celec) has published six rental contracting processes for thermal generation with a combined ~920 MW ambition. Jaramijó (15 MW) and Salitral (60 MW) are in rental procurement; Durán (120 MW) and Esmeraldas IV (150 MW) are in acquisition. Total diesel burn is projected to add 3.92 million barrels annually on top of the current 196,904 monthly baseline.
Ecuador Launches 920 MW Thermal Procurement — $696.8M Total, Rental + Equipment Replacement Split
Ecuador's Corporación Eléctrica del Ecuador (CELEC EP) and the Ministry of Environment and Energy (MAE) have initiated contracting for 920 MW of thermal generation capacity for 2026 — $315.54M for 525 MW of rapid-install rental plus $381.30M for 395 MW of equipment replacement at nine existing thermal plants. Demand growth is 4-5% annually.
Ecuador Withholds $134M Sinohydro Guarantees Pending July 2026 PowerChina O&M Handover
Ecuador will retain $134 million in guarantees from Sinohydro until parent PowerChina assumes operations and maintenance of the Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric plant in July 2026. The withheld sum — $98M retention plus $36M distributor-related — is tied to performance during the O&M transition. The plant has 17,000+ identified distributor fissures.
Ecuador-Peru 500 kV Electrical Interconnection Deemed Technically Viable by Former Peru Energy Minister
Former Peruvian Energy Minister Carlos Herrera Descalzi, in an interview with Primicias, said a 500 kV high-voltage link between Ecuador and Peru is technically viable. Peru's 14,000 MW installed capacity against 8,000 MW demand — plus same-frequency grids and complementary dry seasons — supports the exchange architecture. Timeline and binational agreement remain unspecified.
Celec's Sopladora Plant Returns to Full 487 MW Capacity — Three Units Online Since April 5
Ecuador's Sopladora hydroelectric plant — operated by Celec Sur — returned to full installed capacity of 487 MW on April 5, 2026, completing replacement of a 40-tonne turbine shaft on Unit 2 damaged in a July 2023 technical event. The facility had operated at ~80% capacity from April 2024 until shaft replacement. Paute Integral complex (of which Sopladora is part) supplies roughly 40% of national demand.
Ecuador to Formally Accept Coca Codo Sinclair April 17; PowerChina Lands $1.15B 25-Year O&M Contract
Ecuador formally accepts the 1,500 MW Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric from Sinohydro by April 17, 2026, ending a decade of refused acceptance over structural defects. PowerChina takes over O&M for $46M/year over 25 years ($1.15B total). $200M cash + $200M supplier credit close prior international arbitration. Distribuidor fissure liability transferred contractually to PowerChina.
Mazar Reservoir at 2,137 m.s.n.m. — 23-28 Meters Above 2024 Same-Period; Hydro Mix at 72.3% of Generation
Ecuador's Mazar reservoir — the strategic upstream storage for the Paute hydroelectric complex — sits at ~2,137 m.s.n.m. as of April 16, 2026, representing ~61% stored energy capacity and 23-28 meters above 2024 same-period levels. Energy Minister Inés Manzano: "tenemos agua." Hydro provided 72.3% of national output April 16; Coca Codo Sinclair 40% / Paute Molino 19%.
CENACE Formally Warns of High Blackout Risk — April 14 Demand Hits Historic 5,374 MW Record
Ecuador's grid operator CENACE formally warned of high probability of forced load-shedding across six CNEL distribution units covering roughly 1.9 million users. April 14 set a historic peak demand record of 5,374 MW. Mallorca feeder at Cataluña substation (Daule) identified as central failure point; some customers reporting 12-hour outages.
Judge Orders Preventive Detention for 15 in Six-Province Fuel Trafficking Network — 3 Active-Duty Military, 5 Police
An Ecuadorian judge ordered preventive detention for 15 of 16 people detained in a fuel trafficking network that operated across six provinces from October 2024 through April 2026. The ring included three active-duty military personnel and five police officers. Evidence came from 18 seized mobile devices showing systematic recruitment of police.