Articles
Business intelligence and analysis on Ecuador
Ecuador-UAE CEPA Reaches Technical Closure — 98% of Products Enter at 0% Tariff, Signature Expected March 2026
Ecuador and the United Arab Emirates concluded technical negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) covering 98% of Ecuadorian products at zero tariff, with formal signature expected in March 2026. Fedexpor estimates non-petroleum exports to the UAE could grow 30% annually once the agreement takes effect, with the market potentially absorbing $1 billion in Ecuadorian goods by 2030. The deal positions Ecuador ahead of regional competitors in accessing Gulf Cooperation Council markets.
Ecuador's International Reserves Hit All-Time Record $11.86 Billion — 35% Held in Gold Above $4,300/oz, Strengthening Dollarization Foundation
Ecuador's international reserves reached an all-time record of $11.858 billion as of February 16, 2026, according to Central Bank (BCE) data — a 37.9% increase year-over-year and the highest level in the country's 25-year dollarization history. Approximately 35% of reserves are held in gold, valued at an estimated $4.15 billion as gold prices surpass $4,300 per ounce. The reserve buffer significantly strengthens Ecuador's capacity to absorb external shocks from the ongoing Colombia trade dispute and new US Section 122 tariffs.
Lundin Gold Commits $100M for 133,000-Meter Drilling Program — Largest Single-Year Exploration Investment in Ecuador's Mining History
Lundin Gold announced its largest-ever exploration program — $100 million and 133,000 meters of drilling in 2026 — focused on extending the life of its high-grade Fruta del Norte gold mine in Zamora Chinchipe province. The investment represents the largest single-year exploration commitment by any mining company in Ecuador's history. A development decision on the Fruta del Norte South deposit is expected in H1 2026, with annual gold production guidance maintained at 475,000-525,000 ounces through 2028.
National Assembly Passes Local Government Spending Law 77-0 — Mandates 70/30 Investment-to-Current Spending Split Across $3.65 Billion in Subnational Budgets
The National Assembly approved President Noboa's urgent economic bill with 77 votes and zero opposition, mandating that Ecuador's 221 municipalities and 23 provincial governments allocate at least 70% of their budgets to public investment, capping current spending at 30%. The law affects approximately $3.65 billion in subnational fiscal resources and is designed to redirect local government spending from payroll and administrative costs toward infrastructure, public works, and development projects.
Construction Sector Posts $2.45 Billion and 8% Growth in 2025 — Government's Miti-Miti Mortgage Program Set to Double Lending Volume in 2026
Ecuador's construction sector generated $2.45 billion in output during 2025, posting 8% year-over-year growth after 27 consecutive months of contraction. The recovery is driven primarily by the government's 'Tu Casa Miti-Miti' mortgage program, which offers subsidized interest rates of 4.87-4.99% — well below market rates of 9-11%. Vice Minister of Housing Daniel Elmir projects that mortgage lending under the program will double in 2026 as coverage expands to secondary cities beyond Quito and Guayaquil.
Colombia Cuts Electricity Exports to Ecuador as Tariff Dispute Strains Andean Energy Integration — Dry Season Grid Stability at Risk
Colombia has suspended electricity exports to Ecuador in retaliation for Ecuador's 30% security tariff on Colombian imports, threatening grid stability during the March-September dry season when hydroelectric generation — which provides 75% of Ecuador's power — typically drops 20-30%. The energy cut adds a third front to the bilateral dispute, alongside Colombia's reciprocal trade tariffs and its 900% increase in OCP crude oil pipeline transit fees. Ecuador imported approximately 500-800 GWh from Colombia in 2025, and the loss of this supply buffer comes as the country is still recovering from the 2024 blackout crisis.
Government to Tender 2,100 MW Across Three Power Projects in 2026 — Including 1,500 MW Solar Mega-Plant in Zapotillo That Would Rank Among Latin America's Largest
Ecuador's Energy Ministry announced plans to tender three major power generation projects in 2026 totaling 2,100 MW: a 400 MW natural gas combined-cycle plant, a 200 MW solar photovoltaic facility in Santa Elena, and a 1,500 MW solar mega-park in Zapotillo, Loja province. The combined investment pipeline is estimated at $2.5-3 billion and represents Ecuador's most aggressive energy diversification push since the 2016 hydroelectric expansion, directly addressing the grid vulnerability exposed by the 2024 blackout crisis.
Ecuador Cocoa Exports Projected to Exceed 623,000 Metric Tons in 2026 — Country on Track to Surpass Ghana as World's #2 Producer
Ecuador's National Cocoa Exporters Association (ANECACAO) projects cocoa exports will exceed 623,000 metric tons in 2026, a 11.3% increase from 2025's 560,000 MT. The volume surge positions Ecuador to surpass Ghana as the world's second-largest cocoa producer in the 2025/26 season. However, the export growth coincides with international cocoa prices crashing below $3,100/MT — a 65% decline from the $9,000/MT peak in April 2025 — creating a volume-up, revenue-down dynamic that threatens farmer incomes.
89 Mining Concessions Suspended Across Napo, Loja, and El Oro in One Week — Environmental Enforcement Crackdown Intensifies Under Noboa
Ecuador's Ministry of Environment and Energy suspended 89 mining concessions and shuttered 54 mineral processing plants across Napo, Loja, and El Oro provinces in a single-week enforcement operation. The crackdown — targeting operations that lack environmental licenses, exceed permitted boundaries, or fail to comply with water protection regulations — signals the Noboa administration's dual approach of aggressively courting international mining investment while demonstrating environmental governance credentials to satisfy ESG-conscious investors and multilateral lenders.
SCOTUS Strikes Down IEEPA Tariffs 6-3, Trump Signs 15% Global Surcharge Under Section 122 — Ecuador's $6.6B Export Channel Faces New Uncertainty
The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 on February 20, 2026 that IEEPA-based tariffs are unconstitutional, immediately invalidating the existing reciprocal tariff framework. President Trump signed a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act within hours, escalating it to 15% the following day. Ecuador — which exported $6.6 billion to the US in 2025, up 30.3% year-over-year — faces a recalibrated trade landscape where shrimp exporters alone ship approximately $20 million per month to American buyers.
Ecuador Files 3 Counter-Complaints Against Colombia at CAN General Secretariat, Escalating Andean Trade Dispute to Full Institutional Battle
Ecuador's Ministry of Production (MPCEIP) filed three formal complaints with the Andean Community (CAN) General Secretariat, arguing that its 30% 'security tariff' on Colombian imports is a legitimate national security tool permitted under Andean trade rules. The filing directly counters Colombia's legal challenge and escalates a bilateral dispute that has already seen Colombia retaliate with a 900% increase in pipeline transit fees, threatening $2.3 billion in annual bilateral trade.
Fedexpor Warns Colombia Actively Replacing Ecuador Suppliers With Chinese, Brazilian, and Mexican Alternatives — Signals Permanent Market-Share Loss Risk
Fedexpor president Xavier Rosero warned at a Guayaquil industry event that Colombia is actively sourcing from China, Brazil, and Mexico to replace Ecuadorian suppliers disrupted by the bilateral tariff dispute. Despite record non-oil exports of $29.4 billion in 2025 with 18.3% growth, Fedexpor projects 2026 growth will decelerate sharply to 6-7%, with the Colombia substitution dynamic posing a risk of permanent market-share loss rather than temporary trade disruption.
