Articles
Business intelligence and analysis on Ecuador
LATAM Ecuador Launches Cuenca-Galapagos Route -- A319 Service, $310 RT, Twice-Weekly
LATAM Ecuador launched the first-ever direct air service between Cuenca and the Galapagos Islands (Baltra) on March 31, 2026, operating twice-weekly Airbus A319 service at fares starting at $310 round-trip. The triangulation route (Cuenca-Quito-Baltra-Cuenca) adds approximately 15,000 annual seats to Galapagos-bound capacity and positions Cuenca's Mariscal La Mar Airport as a multi-destination hub.
Banana Exports Surge 9.7% in January 2026 -- U.S. Tariff Removal and Reduced Central American Competition Drive Growth
Ecuador's banana exports reached 36.59 million 40-pound boxes in January 2026, a 9.7% year-over-year increase driven by expanded production, reduced Central American competition, and the removal of 15% U.S. tariffs under the March 2026 trade deal. Separately, shrimp exports closed 2025 at a record $7.47 billion, with China absorbing nearly half of total volume.
Ecuador's Country Risk Drops to 460 Points; Allianz Trade Upgrades Rating in 2026 Atlas
Ecuador's country risk, measured by the EMBI spread, has dropped from 2,016 to 460 basis points -- a dramatic improvement reflecting fiscal consolidation, trade deal momentum, and restored IMF confidence. Allianz Trade included Ecuador among 36 economies upgraded in its 2026 Atlas. GDP growth is forecast at approximately 2% for 2026-2027, with inflation contained between 1.5% and 2.8% by dollarization.
New Mining & Energy Law Takes Effect -- Permits Streamlined, Indigenous Organizations Push Back
Ecuador's Organic Law for Strengthening Strategic Mining and Energy Sectors took effect on March 2, 2026, following a 77-70 National Assembly vote on February 26. The law replaces the environmental licensing system with a streamlined 'environmental authorization' regime, creates integrated mining clusters, and deploys the Armed Forces to protect strategic mining zones. Indigenous organizations have condemned the legislation as a rollback of constitutional protections.
UAE Signs $3B CEPA With Ecuador -- Clean Energy, Mining, and Tech Investment Roadmap
The United Arab Emirates and Ecuador signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) on March 2, 2026, during the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi's state visit to Quito. The deal eliminates or reduces tariffs on 96% or more of traded goods and establishes a $3 billion strategic investment roadmap covering renewable energy, mining, logistics, technology, and agriculture. A separate $250 million MOU was signed for surveillance and border protection infrastructure.
Ecuador-Colombia Trade War Escalates to 50% Tariffs; Andean Community Mediates
Ecuador raised tariffs on Colombian imports from 30% to 50% effective March 1, 2026, citing Colombia's failure to control organized crime along their shared border. Colombia retaliated with 50% tariffs on approximately 300 Ecuadorian products, including pharmaceuticals, plastics, and mineral fuels. Colombian trade authorities estimate the mutual tariffs could reduce bilateral trade by 75-79%. Delegations met at the Andean Community headquarters in Lima on March 25-26 without reaching resolution.
U.S.-Ecuador Trade Deal Signed -- 15% Tariff Lifted on Key Exports Worth $2.8-3.2B
The United States and Ecuador signed the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade on March 13, 2026, removing the 15% surcharge on approximately 50% of Ecuador's non-petroleum exports -- an estimated $2.8-3.2 billion in annual trade. The deal covers bananas, flowers, cacao, blueberries, tuna, gold, and copper, while Ecuador eliminates or reduces tariffs on 90% or more of U.S. agricultural products. Entry into force requires Constitutional Court approval, National Assembly ratification, and executive signature, targeted for August 2026.
ENAMI Plans 2026 International Tender for $3B Llurimagua Copper Project — 982M-Tonne Resource
Ecuador's state mining company ENAMI plans to launch an international tender in 2026 for the Llurimagua copper-molybdenum project in Imbabura province, valued at an estimated $3 billion. The deposit holds a 982-million-tonne resource capable of producing approximately 210,000 tonnes of copper annually over a 27-year mine life. The tender arrives at a strategic inflection point — weeks after the National Assembly's mining reform and Ecuador's inclusion in the U.S. Critical Minerals Ministerial.
BCE Projects 3.2% Inflation for 2026 as Diesel Subsidy Elimination Saves $1.1B Annually
The Banco Central del Ecuador projects 3.2% inflation for 2026, driven primarily by the September 2025 diesel subsidy elimination that raised prices from $1.80 to $2.80 per gallon. The move generates an estimated $1.1 billion in annual fiscal savings but triggered a 31-day national strike. The government allocated $300 million in transport operator compensation and expanded housing subsidies to 55,000 new families to cushion the impact.
Coca Codo Sinclair's 1,500 MW at Risk — Erosion Could Reach Intake by 2026
Ecuador's 1,500 MW Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric plant — which generates approximately 30% of national electricity — faces an existential erosion threat. The US Army Corps of Engineers has warned that progressive riverbed erosion, triggered by the 2020 collapse of San Rafael Waterfall, could reach the plant's water intake infrastructure by 2026. The government has deployed $17.3 million in emergency mitigation and leased three Turkish floating power plants as backup generation.
Lundin Gold Commits $100M Exploration Budget for 2026 — Fruta del Norte South Decision by H1
Lundin Gold has committed $100 million in exploration investment for 2026, targeting a development decision on the Fruta del Norte South satellite deposit by H1 and a mill expansion study (beyond 5,500 t/d) by H2. The company produced 498,315 ounces of gold in 2025 and guides 475,000-525,000 oz for 2026 at all-in sustaining costs of $1,110-1,170/oz. Ecuador's Decree 273 sliding royalty regime has added approximately $150/oz to the cost structure.
Ecuador Shrimp Exports Hit Record $8.4B in 2025 — Surpass Oil as Top Export for First Time
Ecuador's shrimp industry achieved a historic milestone in 2025, exporting $8.401 billion worth of product — a 20.2% increase over 2024 — and surpassing crude oil as the country's top export for the first time. Total non-oil exports reached $29.402 billion (+18.3% YoY). U.S. countervailing duties on Indian shrimp have accelerated Ecuador's market share gains, and industry projections suggest volumes could exceed 1.5 million metric tons in 2026.