Articles
Business intelligence and analysis on Ecuador
US and Ecuador Substantially Conclude Agreement on Reciprocal Trade, Eliminating 15% Tariff Surcharge on ~$3.2 Billion Non-Petroleum Export Basket
The United States and Ecuador substantially concluded negotiations for an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART), with a formal signing expected in the coming weeks. The deal eliminates the 15% tariff surcharge on approximately 50% of Ecuador's non-petroleum exports — a basket worth roughly $3.2 billion — covering flowers, bananas, cacao, tuna, blueberries, avocados, pineapples, dragon fruit, and minerals including gold and copper.
Ecuador Banana Exports Hit Record 378 Million Boxes in 2025, Up 3.9% Year-Over-Year as EU and Russia Absorb Over Half of Shipments
Ecuador exported a record 378.41 million boxes of bananas in 2025, a 3.9% increase over 2024, consolidating its position as the world's largest banana exporter. The European Union (31%) and Russia (20%) remained the dominant markets, accounting for over half of all shipments. Emerging growth came from the United States (+14.5%), China (+17.9%), and South Korea (+39.1%), with the just-concluded US-Ecuador reciprocal trade agreement poised to further diversify destination markets.
Ecuador Commits $2.43 Billion to 23 Power Projects Adding 1,471 MW by 2030, With Solar Accounting for 963 MW and $913 Million After Worst Energy Crisis in Decades
Ecuador unveiled its 2025-2030 electric power expansion plan committing $2.43 billion across 23 projects to add 1,471 MW of new hydro, solar, wind, and geothermal capacity. Solar dominates the plan at 963 MW ($913 million), accounting for 65% of new capacity — a strategic pivot away from the hydropower dependence that caused daily blackouts of up to 14 hours and an estimated $2 billion in economic losses during the 2024 drought crisis.
ENAMI Prepares International Tender for $3 Billion Llurimagua Copper Project After Arbitration Tribunal Awards Codelco Just $25.3 Million of $567 Million Claim
Ecuador's state-owned mining company ENAMI plans to launch an international tender in 2026 for the $3 billion Llurimagua copper-molybdenum project after the ICC International Court of Arbitration rejected most of Chile's Codelco $567 million damages claim, awarding just $25.3 million in July 2025. The project — located in Imbabura province, 80 km northeast of Quito — holds a 982-million-tonne resource capable of producing approximately 210,000 tonnes of copper per year over a 27-year mine life.
CAF Invests $450,000 in Ecuador's First National Competitiveness Policy, Signs Technical Cooperation Agreement at Economic Forum 2026 Launch
CAF — Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean — signed a $450,000 non-reimbursable technical cooperation agreement with Ecuador's Ministry of Production, Foreign Trade and Investment to design the country's first comprehensive national competitiveness policy. The agreement, titled 'Towards a New Competitiveness Policy for Ecuador,' was formalized at the Quito launch of CAF's II International Economic Forum, which convened 6,500 leaders from 70 countries in Panama City on January 28-30.
US Formally Designates Ecuador's Rare Earth, Copper, and Gold Reserves as Strategic Minerals at 54-Nation Critical Minerals Ministerial
The United States formally recognized Ecuador's rare earth, copper, and gold deposits as strategic minerals at the February 4, 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington, signing a bilateral framework agreement as part of a 54-nation effort to diversify supply chains away from Chinese dominance. The designation opens access to $10 billion in EXIM Bank financing and DFC investment guarantees — but faces a paradox: Chinese state-linked firms already control Ecuador's three largest undeveloped mining projects worth an estimated $50+ billion in combined resources.
TerraEarth Resources: How a Chinese-Owned Firm Amassed 10,900 Hectares of Gold Concessions in Ecuador's Amazon While Contaminating Rivers at 500x Safe Levels
TerraEarth Resources S.A. — a Quito-registered company with $580,000 in capital and two employees, controlled by Chinese nationals Peng Yongming and Wang Ye — holds 10,900 hectares of gold mining concessions across six sites in Napo Province, making it the largest single concession holder in Ecuador's Amazon gold belt. An investigation by Primicias reveals that despite 29 government inspections documenting 55 environmental violations, the company deforested nearly 700 acres and contaminated the Chumbiyacu River with heavy metals at 500 times acceptable levels before its licenses were finally suspended in May 2025.
Chevron Arbitration Award Reduced to $215 Million After Ecuador Wins 93% Savings on Original $3.35 Billion Claim — Procuraduría Weighs Annulment
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague has reduced the damages Ecuador must pay Chevron from $220.8 million to $215.07 million following a correction request, while the Procuraduría General del Estado claims a 93% savings against Chevron's original $3.35 billion claim. Procurador Juan Carlos Larrea announced Ecuador has three months to decide whether to seek annulment of the award, negotiate payment terms, or challenge the ruling — as indigenous communities in the Amazon who suffered the original contamination have still received no compensation.
Ecuador Banks Report 7,670 Suspicious Operations in 2025 — Up 42% — as BCE Mandates 47-Pattern Crypto Detection System to Protect Dollarization
Ecuador's banking system reported 7,670 suspicious financial operations in 2025 — a 42% increase from 5,408 in 2024 — as the UAFE (financial intelligence unit) identified $600 million linked to money laundering and $1.5 billion in unusual transactions. Simultaneously, the Superintendencia de Bancos declared the system 'solid and solvent' with $60 billion in deposits and a 14.32% solvency ratio. The Central Bank has mandated all banks install a 47-pattern Transaction Monitoring System targeting cryptocurrency activity to protect Ecuador's dollarized economy.
ProEcuador Absorbed Into Ministry of Production as Noboa's Efficiency Plan Cuts Executive Branch Institutions by 41% — Export Promotion Staff Under Evaluation
Ecuador's export promotion agency ProEcuador has been absorbed into the Ministry of Production, Foreign Trade and Investment under President Noboa's Administrative Efficiency Plan, which reduced executive branch institutions by 41% and ministries from 20 to 14. ProEcuador's staff — responsible for operating 24 commercial offices in 21 countries — are under evaluation as the restructuring takes effect during a period when Ecuador is simultaneously finalizing trade agreements with the United States, Canada, and the UAE.
Ecuador Retail Sales Hit $20.4 Billion in January 2026 — Up 6.8% — as Construction Surges 21% and Administrative Services Jump 22%
Ecuador's retail sales reached $20.39 billion in January 2026, a 6.8% increase ($1.29 billion) over January 2025's $19.1 billion, according to the Servicio de Rentas Internas (SRI). Construction led sectoral growth at 21%, followed by administrative services (+22.3%) and real estate (+21.1%), while the commerce sector — the economy's largest — generated $8.3 billion in monthly activity alone. The data confirms a strong consumer confidence rebound following the 2024 power crisis and economic contraction.
Noboa Signs Decree 307: State Authorized to Buy, Store, and Sell Rice and Corn Directly as 20,000-Tonne Emergency Purchase Targets Farmer Crisis
President Noboa signed Executive Decree 307 on February 13, authorizing the Ministry of Agriculture to directly buy, sell, and store rice and corn to combat price speculation and hoarding. The decree triggers an immediate purchase of 20,000 metric tons of paddy rice from producers — described by Noboa as 'the largest purchase a government has made all at once' — as rice farmers face a deepening crisis: mills paying $20-25 per 220-pound sack against official minimums of $34-36, and 60,000 tonnes of export-grade rice stuck domestically after Colombia's 30% retaliatory tariff closed Ecuador's primary grain export market.
