Articles
Business intelligence and analysis on Ecuador
Ecuador Banks Report 7,670 Suspicious Operations in 2025 — Up 42% — as BCE Mandates 47-Pattern Crypto Detection System to Protect Dollarization
Ecuador's banking system reported 7,670 suspicious financial operations in 2025 — a 42% increase from 5,408 in 2024 — as the UAFE (financial intelligence unit) identified $600 million linked to money laundering and $1.5 billion in unusual transactions. Simultaneously, the Superintendencia de Bancos declared the system 'solid and solvent' with $60 billion in deposits and a 14.32% solvency ratio. The Central Bank has mandated all banks install a 47-pattern Transaction Monitoring System targeting cryptocurrency activity to protect Ecuador's dollarized economy.
ProEcuador Absorbed Into Ministry of Production as Noboa's Efficiency Plan Cuts Executive Branch Institutions by 41% — Export Promotion Staff Under Evaluation
Ecuador's export promotion agency ProEcuador has been absorbed into the Ministry of Production, Foreign Trade and Investment under President Noboa's Administrative Efficiency Plan, which reduced executive branch institutions by 41% and ministries from 20 to 14. ProEcuador's staff — responsible for operating 24 commercial offices in 21 countries — are under evaluation as the restructuring takes effect during a period when Ecuador is simultaneously finalizing trade agreements with the United States, Canada, and the UAE.
Ecuador Retail Sales Hit $20.4 Billion in January 2026 — Up 6.8% — as Construction Surges 21% and Administrative Services Jump 22%
Ecuador's retail sales reached $20.39 billion in January 2026, a 6.8% increase ($1.29 billion) over January 2025's $19.1 billion, according to the Servicio de Rentas Internas (SRI). Construction led sectoral growth at 21%, followed by administrative services (+22.3%) and real estate (+21.1%), while the commerce sector — the economy's largest — generated $8.3 billion in monthly activity alone. The data confirms a strong consumer confidence rebound following the 2024 power crisis and economic contraction.
Noboa Signs Decree 307: State Authorized to Buy, Store, and Sell Rice and Corn Directly as 20,000-Tonne Emergency Purchase Targets Farmer Crisis
President Noboa signed Executive Decree 307 on February 13, authorizing the Ministry of Agriculture to directly buy, sell, and store rice and corn to combat price speculation and hoarding. The decree triggers an immediate purchase of 20,000 metric tons of paddy rice from producers — described by Noboa as 'the largest purchase a government has made all at once' — as rice farmers face a deepening crisis: mills paying $20-25 per 220-pound sack against official minimums of $34-36, and 60,000 tonnes of export-grade rice stuck domestically after Colombia's 30% retaliatory tariff closed Ecuador's primary grain export market.
Noboa Relocates Federal Government to Guayaquil After Mayor Alvarez Arrested on Organized Crime and Money Laundering Charges
President Daniel Noboa announced on February 13 that Ecuador's federal government will operate from Guayaquil for several weeks following the arrest and imprisonment of Mayor Aquiles Alvarez on organized crime, money laundering, and tax fraud charges. From Guayaquil, Noboa is launching accelerated housing programs, university student residences, job training initiatives, and enhanced citizen security operations — effectively federalizing governance of Ecuador's largest city and main commercial port.
Ecuador-Colombia Trade War Escalates: Cross-Border Transit Drops 99%, Pipeline Tariff Surges 900%, and Electricity Exports Suspended
The trade war between Ecuador and Colombia has escalated into the most severe bilateral commercial crisis in decades. Ecuador's 30% 'security tariff' on Colombian imports — effective February 1 — triggered matching 30% retaliatory tariffs from Bogotá on 23 Ecuadorian products, a suspension of Colombian electricity exports, and Ecuador's counter-escalation of a 900% pipeline tariff increase on Colombian crude oil transport. Cross-border goods transit at the Rumichaca international crossing has plunged by up to 99%.
Global Cocoa Prices Crash 62% From 2025 Peak to $4,197/Ton — Ecuador's Rising Cacao Sector Faces Margin Squeeze as World's No. 4 Producer
Global cocoa prices have crashed approximately 62% from their mid-2025 peak above $11,000 per metric ton to approximately $4,197/ton by mid-February 2026. The collapse threatens Ecuador's ambitions to expand its position as the world's fourth-largest cocoa producer, with the country's $1.2 billion annual cacao export sector facing compressed margins — particularly for bulk CCN-51 variety growers — even as fine-aroma Nacional cacao continues to command a premium.
Ecuador's $46.3 Billion 2026 Budget Approved With $2.2 Billion Public Investment Plan Targeting 1,471 MW of New Energy Capacity and 388 Infrastructure Projects
Ecuador's National Assembly has approved a 2026 budget of $46.3 billion — a 13% increase over 2025 and equivalent to 33.27% of GDP. The Annual Investment Plan allocates $2.2 billion across 388 projects, with the centerpiece being a $2.43 billion electric power expansion plan targeting 1,471 MW of new renewable capacity through 2030, including $913 million for 963 MW of solar installations. The construction sector is forecast to grow 4.1% in 2026.
Ecuador Expands US Security Partnership With Surveillance Drones, Military Advisors, and Port Monitoring Systems to Combat Drug Trafficking
President Noboa has announced a significant expansion of security cooperation with the United States, including the deployment of American military advisors, surveillance drones, and advanced port monitoring systems. The partnership — part of the broader US-Ecuador strategic alignment that underpins the recently concluded trade agreement — targets drug trafficking networks and Colombian-origin armed groups operating in Ecuador's border provinces and port facilities.
CAF Signs $450,000 Technical Cooperation for Ecuador's National Competitiveness Strategy as II International Economic Forum Launches
CAF (Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean) has signed a $450,000 non-reimbursable technical cooperation agreement with Ecuador to support the design of a comprehensive national competitiveness strategy. The agreement was formalized during the launch of the II International Economic Forum 2026 and the Latin America and Caribbean Business Roundtable in Quito, with Economy Minister Sariha Moya and Production Minister Luis Alberto Jaramillo present.
US-Ecuador Reciprocal Trade Deal 'Substantially Concluded' With Full Tariff Elimination — Shrimp Sector Demands Inclusion in Final Product List
The United States and Ecuador have 'substantially concluded' negotiations on a reciprocal trade agreement that would fully eliminate the 15% surcharge on Ecuadorian goods. However, the shrimp sector — representing $2 billion annually in US-bound exports — has not been confirmed in the final product list, prompting CNA president José Antonio Camposano to warn that 'every agreement the country negotiates must include shrimp.'
Ecuador's Petroleum Paradox: $5.9B in Projected Crude Exports Nearly Matched by $5.0B Fuel Import Bill in 2026
Ecuador's Ministry of Finance projects the country will export approximately $5.926 billion in crude oil in 2026 while importing $4.981 billion in refined fuels — reducing the net petroleum benefit to just $945 million. The near-parity between crude revenue and fuel costs represents an 85% erosion from 2023 levels and exposes the structural fragility of an oil-producing nation that cannot refine enough of its own crude.
