Articles
Business intelligence and analysis on Ecuador
Ecuador-UAE CEPA Reaches Technical Closure — 98% of Products Enter at 0% Tariff, Signature Expected March 2026
Ecuador and the United Arab Emirates concluded technical negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) covering 98% of Ecuadorian products at zero tariff, with formal signature expected in March 2026. Fedexpor estimates non-petroleum exports to the UAE could grow 30% annually once the agreement takes effect, with the market potentially absorbing $1 billion in Ecuadorian goods by 2030. The deal positions Ecuador ahead of regional competitors in accessing Gulf Cooperation Council markets.
SCOTUS Strikes Down IEEPA Tariffs 6-3, Trump Signs 15% Global Surcharge Under Section 122 — Ecuador's $6.6B Export Channel Faces New Uncertainty
The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 on February 20, 2026 that IEEPA-based tariffs are unconstitutional, immediately invalidating the existing reciprocal tariff framework. President Trump signed a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act within hours, escalating it to 15% the following day. Ecuador — which exported $6.6 billion to the US in 2025, up 30.3% year-over-year — faces a recalibrated trade landscape where shrimp exporters alone ship approximately $20 million per month to American buyers.
Ecuador Files 3 Counter-Complaints Against Colombia at CAN General Secretariat, Escalating Andean Trade Dispute to Full Institutional Battle
Ecuador's Ministry of Production (MPCEIP) filed three formal complaints with the Andean Community (CAN) General Secretariat, arguing that its 30% 'security tariff' on Colombian imports is a legitimate national security tool permitted under Andean trade rules. The filing directly counters Colombia's legal challenge and escalates a bilateral dispute that has already seen Colombia retaliate with a 900% increase in pipeline transit fees, threatening $2.3 billion in annual bilateral trade.
Fedexpor Warns Colombia Actively Replacing Ecuador Suppliers With Chinese, Brazilian, and Mexican Alternatives — Signals Permanent Market-Share Loss Risk
Fedexpor president Xavier Rosero warned at a Guayaquil industry event that Colombia is actively sourcing from China, Brazil, and Mexico to replace Ecuadorian suppliers disrupted by the bilateral tariff dispute. Despite record non-oil exports of $29.4 billion in 2025 with 18.3% growth, Fedexpor projects 2026 growth will decelerate sharply to 6-7%, with the Colombia substitution dynamic posing a risk of permanent market-share loss rather than temporary trade disruption.
Israeli FM Gideon Saar Makes Historic Ecuador Visit, Launches Formal Trade Negotiations and Signs Security Cooperation Pact in Guayaquil
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar visited Guayaquil in what officials described as the first visit by an Israeli foreign minister to Ecuador, launching formal trade negotiations and signing a security cooperation agreement. The visit is part of Israel's declared strategy of making 2026 its 'year of Latin America,' potentially opening a new market for Ecuadorian agricultural and commodity exports within Israel's approximately $20 billion Latin American trade relationship.
Ecuador's Export Sector Absorbs $525 Million/Year in Security and Redundant Port Inspection Costs, Creating Hidden Competitiveness Drag
Ecuador's export sector absorbs approximately $525 million per year in security and port inspection costs, according to Fedexpor president Xavier Rosero. Private security accounts for $400-425 million while redundant narcotics inspections — where containers are X-ray scanned at $50 then physically opened up to three more times at $200 each — add another $100 million. The costs represent a hidden competitiveness drag that compresses exporter margins despite record $29.4 billion in non-oil exports.
Two Free Trade Zones Now Operational in Guayas Province: ZOFRAPORT and Pascuales Offer 0% Income Tax for Five Years Under Economic Efficiency Law
Ecuador's two newest free trade zones in Guayas province — ZOFRAPORT at Posorja and Paseo Tablado at Pascuales — are now operational under the 2023 Economic Efficiency Law. Companies establishing operations within the zones pay 0% income tax for five years and a fixed 15% rate thereafter, as the government projects 180,000 direct and 500,000 indirect jobs from the national free zone program.
Ecuador-Colombia Trade War Escalates: 30% Mutual Tariffs, 900% Pipeline Fee Hike to $30/Barrel, and Electricity Suspension Disrupt $2.3 Billion Bilateral Trade
Ecuador and Colombia remain locked in the most severe bilateral trade dispute in decades. President Daniel Noboa's January 21 announcement of a 30% 'security tariff' on all Colombian imports — paired with a 900% increase in pipeline transit fees from $3 to $30 per barrel — triggered Colombian retaliation including 30% tariffs on 23 Ecuadorian products and an indefinite suspension of electricity exports. Bilateral trade worth approximately $2.3 billion annually has been severely disrupted.
US and Ecuador Substantially Conclude Agreement on Reciprocal Trade, Eliminating 15% Tariff Surcharge on ~$3.2 Billion Non-Petroleum Export Basket
The United States and Ecuador substantially concluded negotiations for an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART), with a formal signing expected in the coming weeks. The deal eliminates the 15% tariff surcharge on approximately 50% of Ecuador's non-petroleum exports — a basket worth roughly $3.2 billion — covering flowers, bananas, cacao, tuna, blueberries, avocados, pineapples, dragon fruit, and minerals including gold and copper.
Ecuador-Colombia Trade War Escalates: Cross-Border Transit Drops 99%, Pipeline Tariff Surges 900%, and Electricity Exports Suspended
The trade war between Ecuador and Colombia has escalated into the most severe bilateral commercial crisis in decades. Ecuador's 30% 'security tariff' on Colombian imports — effective February 1 — triggered matching 30% retaliatory tariffs from Bogotá on 23 Ecuadorian products, a suspension of Colombian electricity exports, and Ecuador's counter-escalation of a 900% pipeline tariff increase on Colombian crude oil transport. Cross-border goods transit at the Rumichaca international crossing has plunged by up to 99%.
CAF Signs $450,000 Technical Cooperation for Ecuador's National Competitiveness Strategy as II International Economic Forum Launches
CAF (Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean) has signed a $450,000 non-reimbursable technical cooperation agreement with Ecuador to support the design of a comprehensive national competitiveness strategy. The agreement was formalized during the launch of the II International Economic Forum 2026 and the Latin America and Caribbean Business Roundtable in Quito, with Economy Minister Sariha Moya and Production Minister Luis Alberto Jaramillo present.
US-Ecuador Reciprocal Trade Deal 'Substantially Concluded' With Full Tariff Elimination — Shrimp Sector Demands Inclusion in Final Product List
The United States and Ecuador have 'substantially concluded' negotiations on a reciprocal trade agreement that would fully eliminate the 15% surcharge on Ecuadorian goods. However, the shrimp sector — representing $2 billion annually in US-bound exports — has not been confirmed in the final product list, prompting CNA president José Antonio Camposano to warn that 'every agreement the country negotiates must include shrimp.'
