Articles
Business intelligence and analysis on Ecuador
Cacao Exports Projected at 623,000+ MT; Ecuador to Surpass Ghana as World No. 2
Ecuador's cacao exports are projected to exceed 623,000 metric tonnes in 2026, according to Anecacao, positioning the country to surpass Ghana as the world's second-largest cacao producer. Production has surged from 375,720 MT in 2023, with the 2026/27 season potentially exceeding 650,000 MT. The industry targets 800,000 MT by decade's end.
Ecuador Shrimp Exports Hit Record $8.4B in 2025 — Surpass Oil as Top Export for First Time
Ecuador's shrimp industry achieved a historic milestone in 2025, exporting $8.401 billion worth of product — a 20.2% increase over 2024 — and surpassing crude oil as the country's top export for the first time. Total non-oil exports reached $29.402 billion (+18.3% YoY). U.S. countervailing duties on Indian shrimp have accelerated Ecuador's market share gains, and industry projections suggest volumes could exceed 1.5 million metric tons in 2026.
Ecuador Shrimp Exports Hit $7.5B in 2025; January 2026 Volumes Up 23% YoY
Ecuador's shrimp exports reached $7.47 billion in 2025, up 23.2% year-on-year. January 2026 volumes continued the trajectory at 125,200 tonnes (+23% YoY). China accounts for 49.5% of export volume. Shrimp has officially surpassed petroleum as Ecuador's top export category, with industry projections targeting a further 15% increase in 2026.
Ecuador Cocoa on Track to Overtake Ghana as World's #2 Producer in 2026
Ecuador is projected to export over 623,000 metric tons of cocoa in 2026, according to Anecacao estimates, positioning the country to overtake Ghana as the world's second-largest producer behind Côte d'Ivoire. Cocoa exports have already surpassed banana exports in value for the first time in six decades, reaching $3.6 billion in 2024.
Ecuador Cocoa Exports Projected to Exceed 623,000 Metric Tons in 2026 — Country on Track to Surpass Ghana as World's #2 Producer
Ecuador's National Cocoa Exporters Association (ANECACAO) projects cocoa exports will exceed 623,000 metric tons in 2026, a 11.3% increase from 2025's 560,000 MT. The volume surge positions Ecuador to surpass Ghana as the world's second-largest cocoa producer in the 2025/26 season. However, the export growth coincides with international cocoa prices crashing below $3,100/MT — a 65% decline from the $9,000/MT peak in April 2025 — creating a volume-up, revenue-down dynamic that threatens farmer incomes.
Cocoa Prices Crash Below $3,100/Ton From Record Highs as 287,000-Tonne Global Surplus Emerges — Ecuador Positioned to Become World's No. 2 Producer
Global cocoa prices have crashed below $3,100 per metric ton, a dramatic reversal from the record highs of 2024-2025, driven by a projected 287,000-tonne global production surplus. Ecuador stands to benefit from the supply rebalancing: with yields of 800 kg/ha versus Ghana's 400 kg/ha and projected output exceeding 650,000 MT in 2026/27, the country is on track to overtake Ghana as the world's second-largest cocoa producer — though lower prices per ton will partially offset the volume gains.
Ecuador's $1.2 Billion Tuna Export Sector Faces Price Pressure as Abundant Yellowfin Catches Collide With Global Skipjack Scarcity and Thai Reference Pricing
Ecuador's tuna industry, the world's largest exporter at 17% of global trade and $1.2 billion in annual revenue, faces downward pricing pressure despite abundant yellowfin catches in the Eastern Pacific. Persistent global skipjack scarcity continues to allow Thailand to set reference prices, creating a two-speed market that compresses margins for Ecuadorian processors and fleet operators.
Ecuador Valentine's Day Flower Exports Rise 3% to 39,000 Tons But Revenue Falls to $274 Million as Combined 21.8% US Tariff Erodes Margins
Ecuador shipped approximately 39,000 tons of flowers for Valentine's Day 2026 — a 3% increase over 2025's 37,000 tons — but revenue is projected to decline to $274-276 million from $282 million last year. The decline reflects a combined 21.8% US tariff (15% Trump administration surcharge plus 6.8% existing duty) that has compressed margins across the sector's 6,200 hectares of plantations employing 120,000 workers.
Ecuador Banana Exports Hit Record 378 Million Boxes in 2025, Up 3.9% Year-Over-Year as EU and Russia Absorb Over Half of Shipments
Ecuador exported a record 378.41 million boxes of bananas in 2025, a 3.9% increase over 2024, consolidating its position as the world's largest banana exporter. The European Union (31%) and Russia (20%) remained the dominant markets, accounting for over half of all shipments. Emerging growth came from the United States (+14.5%), China (+17.9%), and South Korea (+39.1%), with the just-concluded US-Ecuador reciprocal trade agreement poised to further diversify destination markets.
Global Cocoa Prices Crash 62% From 2025 Peak to $4,197/Ton — Ecuador's Rising Cacao Sector Faces Margin Squeeze as World's No. 4 Producer
Global cocoa prices have crashed approximately 62% from their mid-2025 peak above $11,000 per metric ton to approximately $4,197/ton by mid-February 2026. The collapse threatens Ecuador's ambitions to expand its position as the world's fourth-largest cocoa producer, with the country's $1.2 billion annual cacao export sector facing compressed margins — particularly for bulk CCN-51 variety growers — even as fine-aroma Nacional cacao continues to command a premium.
Ecuador Ships 39,000 Tonnes of Flowers for Valentine's Day 2026 as US Tariff Hike Drives 6% Decline in American Orders
Ecuador's flower industry dispatched 39,000 metric tonnes of cut flowers during the 2026 Valentine's season (January 20 – February 11), up from 37,000 tonnes in 2025. However, the US tariff increase from 6.8% to 21.8% drove a 6% decline in US-bound shipments, costing the sector an estimated $6 million in lost revenue as Colombia's duty-free access captured displaced demand.
Shrimp Officially Overtakes Petroleum as Ecuador's #1 Export Product: $8.4 Billion vs $7.75 Billion in 2025
In a milestone that redefines Ecuador's economic identity, shrimp exports closed 2025 at $8.401 billion — officially surpassing petroleum at $7.750 billion to become the country's single largest export product for the first time in modern history. The crossover ends petroleum's five-decade dominance and confirms Ecuador's structural transformation toward an aquaculture-led export economy.
